At last, a new post on this blog!
Quite a lot has happened last week, right from the Nobel Prize, to 3 state elections, etc... But one event went curiously unnoticed by a large section of the media.
Iran has granted rights to develop a port on the Persian Gulf to China. Guess who lost out on the contract to do so... India!
Not only that, Iran has reduced India's quota of gas from the South Pars gas field, thus giving extra quota to... guess who...China! This does raise questions on a number of vital fronts. I believe the issues are even more fundamental.
Importance of Iran:
India has traditionally described its relations with Iran as a "civilisational link", and indeed, the truth of that statement cannot be denied. However, we have made little progress beyond that, or even attempted to do so.
Iran is unanimously accepted as a regional power, which enjoys considerable clout in several other countries like Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Lebanon etc. Besides, Iran enjoys support from vast sections of several other nations. Indeed, most Shia politicians in the Middle East have strong ties with Iran. It is also an active member of the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC). In fact, Iran's emergence has led to a friction in its relation to the other big regional power, Saudi Arabia. Thus, it would be extremely unwise for anyone to underestimate the extent of Iran's clout, and Iran's status as a regional heavyweight.
India, as an emerging power, must have a vision for a multi-polar world. Thus, while it moves forward in trying to forge long term relations with certain powers, it cannot abandon or risk its relations with other developing nations. A strong India-Iran relation gives India tremendous influence in a volatile region, where India has negligible influence presently, and yet of high importance to India.
It would also ensure India has a reasonable influence in the OIC, in which Pakistan presently has a free hand and is doing its utmost to internationalise the Kashmir issue. Indeed, a friendly Iran offers numerous benefits to India, such as an open, free Persian gulf, entry into the Baloch areas of Iran, a back-door entry into Central Asia, aiding to fortify our strategic gains in Afghanistan, etc.
More fundamentally, it will show the world that India is an independent and non-aligned world power, a nation whose policies are governed by an “enlightened self-interest”, and not by coercion or compulsion. Such relations auger well for a multi polar world.
However, we seem to be sending negative signals. For example, India seems totally absent and almost disinterested in the Iran nuclear debate. I am of the opinion that India must be at the forefront of the campaign to make the NPT a more just and fair treaty, which is almost inextricably linked to both India’s and Iran’s nuclear policies.
Also, in June this year, Manmohan Singh was present at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the BRIC summits in Russia, along with the head of states of several other countries, including Iran. Yet, curiously, India was one of few nations not to congratulate Mr.Ahmedinejad on his “election victory”, unlike other emerging powers such as Brazil, China and Russia. Its not India’s business to judge the legality of their elections, but it is protocol to congratulate newly elected officials.
Oil:
Iran is almost synonymous with oil and gas. Estimates show Iran to have the world’s second largest reserves of oil and gas, after Russia. Obviously, its importance to a growing economy and an ambitious nation like India cannot be exaggerated. While we must try to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, we must be able to secure these resources and have a steady, economical supply of these, at least for the short-term. There are very few such sources of stable, cheap supply that we can boast off. Our African policy lies in tatters, and our Russian ties are quite stagnant. Thus, Iran would quite simply be the biggest boost to our short term energy needs.
In this context, the early promise of the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline has almost vanished. In fact, Iran has gone ahead with its agreement with Pakistan, and it is now a bilateral agreement. There are even rumours of Pakistan attempting to allow China into the deal. At a time where we have just signed the Nuclear Deal with the US, it is hard to read our apparent lack of interest in the IPI pipeline, as independent to the public dissatisfaction of the US to the pipeline deal.
It is in this context that last week’s news has to be understood as a major setback. Hopefully, it should serve as a rude awakening to the ‘blinkered’ South Block.
However, the situation is not yet a cause for alarm. India is engaged in a number of developmental activities in Iran, such as building an arterial highway, joining Afghanistan to the Persian Gulf, and developing the port SEZ of Chabahar, which is situated in a geopolitical hotspot, offering us several benefits. These may be insignificant projects, but they are still big enough starts.
These are investments for the future. All we need is a vision to expand our role in Iran, a vision for our own expanded world view.
