The Iran equation...

At last, a new post on this blog!
Quite a lot has happened last week, right from the Nobel Prize, to 3 state elections, etc... But one event went curiously unnoticed by a large section of the media.
Iran has granted rights to develop a port on the Persian Gulf to China. Guess who lost out on the contract to do so... India!
Not only that, Iran has reduced India's quota of gas from the South Pars gas field, thus giving extra quota to... guess who...China! This does raise questions on a number of vital fronts. I believe the issues are even more fundamental.

Importance of Iran:
India has traditionally described its relations with Iran as a "civilisational link", and indeed, the truth of that statement cannot be denied. However, we have made little progress beyond that, or even attempted to do so.
Iran is unanimously accepted as a regional power, which enjoys considerable clout in several other countries like Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Lebanon etc. Besides, Iran enjoys support from vast sections of several other nations. Indeed, most Shia politicians in the Middle East have strong ties with Iran. It is also an active member of the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC). In fact, Iran's emergence has led to a friction in its relation to the other big regional power, Saudi Arabia. Thus, it would be extremely unwise for anyone to underestimate the extent of Iran's clout, and Iran's status as a regional heavyweight.
India, as an emerging power, must have a vision for a multi-polar world. Thus, while it moves forward in trying to forge long term relations with certain powers, it cannot abandon or risk its relations with other developing nations. A strong India-Iran relation gives India tremendous influence in a volatile region, where India has negligible influence presently, and yet of high importance to India.
It would also ensure India has a reasonable influence in the OIC, in which Pakistan presently has a free hand and is doing its utmost to internationalise the Kashmir issue. Indeed, a friendly Iran offers numerous benefits to India, such as an open, free Persian gulf, entry into the Baloch areas of Iran, a back-door entry into Central Asia, aiding to fortify our strategic gains in Afghanistan, etc.
More fundamentally, it will show the world that India is an independent and non-aligned world power, a nation whose policies are governed by an “enlightened self-interest”, and not by coercion or compulsion. Such relations auger well for a multi polar world.
However, we seem to be sending negative signals. For example, India seems totally absent and almost disinterested in the Iran nuclear debate. I am of the opinion that India must be at the forefront of the campaign to make the NPT a more just and fair treaty, which is almost inextricably linked to both India’s and Iran’s nuclear policies.
Also, in June this year, Manmohan Singh was present at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the BRIC summits in Russia, along with the head of states of several other countries, including Iran. Yet, curiously, India was one of few nations not to congratulate Mr.Ahmedinejad on his “election victory”, unlike other emerging powers such as Brazil, China and Russia. Its not India’s business to judge the legality of their elections, but it is protocol to congratulate newly elected officials.

Oil:
Iran is almost synonymous with oil and gas. Estimates show Iran to have the world’s second largest reserves of oil and gas, after Russia. Obviously, its importance to a growing economy and an ambitious nation like India cannot be exaggerated. While we must try to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, we must be able to secure these resources and have a steady, economical supply of these, at least for the short-term. There are very few such sources of stable, cheap supply that we can boast off. Our African policy lies in tatters, and our Russian ties are quite stagnant. Thus, Iran would quite simply be the biggest boost to our short term energy needs.
In this context, the early promise of the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline has almost vanished. In fact, Iran has gone ahead with its agreement with Pakistan, and it is now a bilateral agreement. There are even rumours of Pakistan attempting to allow China into the deal. At a time where we have just signed the Nuclear Deal with the US, it is hard to read our apparent lack of interest in the IPI pipeline, as independent to the public dissatisfaction of the US to the pipeline deal.
It is in this context that last week’s news has to be understood as a major setback. Hopefully, it should serve as a rude awakening to the ‘blinkered’ South Block.
However, the situation is not yet a cause for alarm. India is engaged in a number of developmental activities in Iran, such as building an arterial highway, joining Afghanistan to the Persian Gulf, and developing the port SEZ of Chabahar, which is situated in a geopolitical hotspot, offering us several benefits. These may be insignificant projects, but they are still big enough starts.
These are investments for the future. All we need is a vision to expand our role in Iran, a vision for our own expanded world view.

The changing game with Washington

Finally Hillary Clinton visited India, after a gap of almost 10 years. Both countries, and indeed the world was a different place the last time she came. She wasn’t the Secretary of State, but was the First Lady of the US back then. Indo-US ties are a lot better now, and we’re a lot more engaged with them, on multiple issues. Last year, was undoubtedly one of our best, in the history of our ties with the US. We had signed a historic Nuclear deal, and due to the haste shown by the then Bush administration, we had arguably gotten the better half of the deal.

The 123 Agreement, ensured that we get an uninterrupted supply of fuel, get the right to reprocess spent fuel and, did not specify any new safeguards and monitoring groups, apart from the ones already specified by the IAEA. While, there were doubts about our right to test Nuclear weapons, I still think it was a victory for Indian diplomats, who negotiated a tough deal with a lame-duck president who was itching to get the deal done, before his term was over. Thus, though there were parts of the deal that many in India raised questions about, one thing was clear, the US was making realistic concessions it wouldn’t have made previously. Thus, the 123 agreement was the best we could have bargained for. This was very much, a high point in the story of Indo-US relations.

But quite a few things have changed since last year. It is no longer a lame-duck president, but one with a strong domestic mandate, and possibly, a different vision of Indo-US ties. Though, the Obama administration has not made any it’s misgivings of the deal public, there was ample room for concern for South Block. The recent G8 summit in Italy, has confirmed what many had already speculated. The US endorsed a statement, seeking to ban transfer of nuclear fuel reprocessing technology, to nations not party to the NPT regime, including India. This was, therefore in contradiction with the 123 agreement, which formed the basis of the nuclear deal. Next, during Clinton’s visit to India, they insisted on an End-User Monitoring Agreement with India, for future sales of defence equipment, which means that the US will be allowed to monitor the use of all defence equipments purchased from them, which includes routine as well as random inspection tours. These recent events certainly cast doubts over the US’s intentions with India.

The statement at the G8 summit:

At first sight, the statement seems fair, and given the non-proliferation theme of the G8 summit, it seems a natural and logical statement. The basic idea is to prevent sale and transfer of advanced nuclear technology to countries with shady non-proliferation records. The Obama administration has attempted to build much more consensus on non-proliferation than the previous government, and rightly so. But, the whole foundation of the non-proliferation movement, ie, the NPT is flawed, and no one’s seems to be concerned by it. The NPT is a highly discriminatory agreement, which seeks to create a group of “Nuclear Haves”, comprised of US, Russia, China, UK and France and the “Nuclear Have-nots” comprising all the other signatories. It accords different rights and responsibilities to the two groups of nations. India has always opposed the NPT, because of this discriminatory approach. But, India’s disapproval to the NPT has often been interpreted as a broad disapproval the non-proliferation movement, by several in the past. Thus, to club India with nations like Pakistan, Israel and North Korea as “outside the movement” would be terribly wrong.

Also, as part of the nuclear deal, India availed a waiver from the NSG and IAEA last year, allowing it to do business in the nuclear sector. The IAEA noted India’s “exceptional record in non-proliferation” while according us this exception. The G8 statement is thus, against this NSG endorsed exemption too.

The End-User Monitoring Agreement:

Allowing US to monitor our usage of our defence equipment is nothing short of a threat to national security. It automatically means that they will have access and information on our vital defence installations. The armed forces would also have to face the inconvenience of having to undergo external monitoring. What it also implies is that, the US can block military sales to India, if it feels that their use will not be in line with US interests. Such agreements therefore, intrude on India’s sovereignty and independent foreign, military policy. India’s long-standing defence suppliers like Russia and France do not insist on such agreements. And thus, this begs the question, how could we accept such an agreement!  Such blunders cast doubts, not just on the US (rather, it confirms our suspicions), but also on the Indian govt’s intentions, especially given the governing party’s history in Defence deals. Thus, it is important that the govt come out and clarify its stand on this EUMA, and also explain to the Parliament, the benefits of such an agreement to India, and why it went ahead in signing it.

In conclusion, these two events have, I believe, changed Indo-US ties, from last year. The stage is now set, for increased US pressure. One only hopes, India does not buckle down, and that our policies are governed by an “enlightened self-interest”. The coming few months would be quite interesting...

 

The question of homosexuality…

This past week has seen a flurry of activity by the “queer” community, and gay activists. Indeed, there have been LGBT rallies organized in Chennai, Bangalore and Delhi. This comes in the wake of reports that Section 377, which concerns homosexuality, may be repealed, or at least amended. These events have surely put this issue in the spotlight. This Section 377, is rather vague. Though it doesn’t explicitly specify gays or lesbians, it supposedly can be used to prosecute them. In essence, homosexuality is, potentially, a crime in India. I say potentially because, this law has hardly ever been used. This law, along with several others, is a legacy of our colonial past, and a vestige from the British.

            One of the biggest criticisms of legalizing homosexuality is its “unnaturalness”. Well, these people exist. Their existence can’t be denied. If people still want proof of their existence, they need to see these “gay pride parades”, I suppose that’s the bottom line of such processions. Thus, having established their existence, I think it follows that its “natural” to them. They can’t be “artificial”. What, I’m trying to say is, that they are surely not fakers.

            Think about it, how can anyone fake something like this? There’re a thousand things one can fake, but surely not one’s sexual orientation. A straight guy would be would be filled with nothing but utter disgust, if he were to “think about another guy”.

And come what may, I think that feeling of disgust can never be removed, however you condition your mind. Because, its something we straight guys are born with. So, it is surely, impossible that all these people are actually straight people, faking to be gay!!!

            And probably, gay men feel the same disgust, if they were to “think about a girl”. Imagine if they were trapped in such a marriage, their whole married life would be, at least sexually, a torture. And then of course, would be the social stigma, if they were to speak openly about it. Such conditions, I believe, justify our deep empathies for gays and lesbians. Therefore, I support decriminalizing homosexuality, and also legalizing it.

            And then of course is the health issue. Just by banning something, we can not make sure that it doesn’t happen. For example, by banning prostitution, we have not removed it. Thus, even if one were to be against homosexuality, banning it wouldn’t stop it. In fact, it would push people underground. We know that AIDS is a big concern, especially among the gay community. India has the 2^nd largest number of AIDS patients in the world. Thus, it is completely to our advantage that we get them out into the open, and thus improve our chances, in this battle against AIDS.

            But lets not lose perspective here, this gay issue is hardly a political issue in India, unlike in the US, where political and public opinion is sharply divided. This is both a disadvantage and an advantage. It’s a disadvantage, because they can never really build a mass movement for their cause. But, it’s an advantage too, because, those opposing gay rights too can’t build mass protests for their cause. Lets face it, this Gay Rights Movement in India, is an extremely urban thing, that too, within a very small section of society. So, there is a very small likelihood for this issue to become a hot political issue. Thus, the govt can do the right thing and repeal these laws, without creating too many noises now. That’s why this is such an opportune moment.

            Above all, India is a tolerant, accepting society. We may not understand their nature completely, but that shouldn’t come in the way of us accepting them.

 

PS: I may have used “them” and “us” in this article. Don’t misunderstand that to mean that I see them as different, and that I detest them. Me using such words has no such negative connotation. It was just a way to get the message across.

                                    

Lalgarh: Some thoughts...

The operation to reclaim Lalgarh is on its last leg. Its fair to say that the Naxals are close to being beaten comprehensively in Lalgarh. So what does India think about this? That after Singur and Nandigram, Lalgarh has emerged as the next hot-bed for anti-CPMism in Bengal? Thus, that CPM’s days are numbered in Bengal? That people are finally fed up of the Left Front?

Questions like these are doing the rounds not just in political circles, but also in the media. But, I feel these are a long way off the reality of the situation in Lalgarh.

I don’t know whether CPM’s days are numbered, or if people in Bengal are fed up with the Left, but I’m sure that Lalgarh has nothing to do with Singur and Nandigram.

            Such comparisons are false and quite ignorant. The situations are completely different. Singur and Nandigram were people’s protests against what they perceived as anti-people policies of the Left Front govt. such protests, are frankly, not alarming. They only reflect some unpopular policies, these are problems that can be solved.

            But Lalgarh is deeper. It strikes at the very heart of India’s authority over its own territory. And Lalgarh is only the tip of the iceberg, there are many more Lalgarhs waiting to happen. In fact, the Naxals have already made vast areas unreachable to the govt. The Naxals are quite simply, India’s biggest threat to internal security. And I’m glad the govt has woken up to this menace. But this is only one side of the story.

            The Naxals are just the symptoms; the disease itself is deeper, and more entrenched. It is the failure of successive governments in places like Jharkhand, parts of orissa, chattisgarh, it is a failure of the state, to integrate the tribals, adivasis to the economic mainstream of the nation.

            Just consider, Jharkhand is one of India’s richest states, in terms of mineral wealth, yet the state has been left impoverished. Jharkhand’s the closest India has to Africa… rich, used and impoverished.

            It’s true that Naxals originated in Bengal, from Naxalbari. But successive and successful implementation of Land Reforms by the Left Front governments removed many of the problems faced by these people. Indeed, over 70% of the land in Lalgarh and surrounding districts is owned by adivasis themselves. There is no doubt that these land reforms were, by far, Left’s greatest achievement in Bengal. It’s a pity that such policies could not be implemented in other parts of the country, by other state governments. The effect of these land reforms were so good that, they alone were reason enough for the people to vote the Left back for 6 consecutive terms! Thus, in the absence of such under-development and impoverishment, the Naxal ideology failed to take hold in Bengal.

But it found resonance in nearby Jharkhand, and Orissa, where colonial,feudal structures of power hadn’t yet evolved, where the riches of the land weren’t shared, where the land made a few people richer, and left the others untouched. Indeed, “Rich got richer, Poor got poorer!!!”

Such abject poverty and deprivation attracted missionaries, ministries and churches. To them, they were good fodder, and mass conversions were organized, with negligible change in their economic standing. None the less, the missionaries’ efforts on improving the healthcare, and educational infrastructures in these areas can’t be ignored. As these missionaries’ reach and influence grew, the “Hindutva” forces became alarmed, and they too came and did similar work. Thus, while I congratulate these religious groups for improving the lives of these people, by a small extent, they have hijacked the issue to suit their religious agendas. To them, the issue is no longer of mass-poverty, but of showing off their “religious superiority”. And in this battle, were trapped the lives of most of the tribals.

Then, of course is the shameful failure of the political class to show any sort of leadership, any sort of interest in the lives of the adivasis. They conveniently got involved in the “battle of religions” described above. Have no doubts about this, events like Kandhamal are a national shame, and are a result of such a brand of politics. Thus, the conditions are ripe for the continued support for these Naxals, in these states, for there is very little effort being made, to address their concerns. When was the last time Jharkhand had a functional government? The Chattisgarh govt goes even further, coming up with “novel ideas” of fighting the Naxals without the state police, but with the Salwa Judum. Such illegitimate organizations perpetuate the feudal structures of power, thus blinding the govt to the real issue, while creating newer problems.

Yet, this battle is not a lost cause. We have the power to transform these areas. Concepts like the NREGA, RTI, etc are landmark policies, which can change their lives for the better. These areas, are desperately crying out for effective implementation of these Acts. The importance of their implementation can’t be exaggerated. If we’re serious in our fight against the Naxals, this has just, got to be done. If not for these people, at least for giving meaning to India’s authority over its own territory…

Finally...

Well, I have finally created my own blog. I so badly wanted to call it retardo.blogspot, but for some unjustified reason, some other idiot has already used it. And worse, that idiot has just one article, posted in 2002!!! Even worse, that one post is like "i was chucked out of wordpress, so just wanted to check out blogspot...". damn...

Destiny... the cosmos has conspired, to make sure I don't name my blog appropriately. So, please, pardon me for this hideous name...

Next, I would try as much as possible, to post every 2 days at least. Obviously, it would be difficult to keep this commitment.  But, lets see...

This blog will obviously reflect my interests like politics, football, cricket, movies, etc... but, i'll take special care to make sure that this blog doesn't become some farce(ironic. given its name, but irony's the name of the game), I want this place to be serious(no, seriously!)...

And I have this awful habit of ending with 3 full stops, instead of one, so please dont mind...

Above all, I hope this blog generates debate. Thats the whole point. I never really wanted to have a blog because I knew for sure, that I'm way too lazy to maintain a blog an all... but, I also realised, that I have a LOT of opinions, on so many topics. Most of these opinions, i just mutter away to anybody closeby(mostly my mom, or a few of my friends). I dont wanna forget these opinions. I believe remembering these opinions will serve me well in my future, to know how my ideas, and opinions have changed, evolved, or been polished over the years...

India is an arguementative soceity. I wanna keep these traditions alive. So should you...

So, please do comment on my posts...